To: American Foreign Policy Class
From: Group 4
Date: 2/1/2019
RE: Al-Qaeda Advancement in Northern Syria pressuring Threat of Breaking Cease-fire
Executive Summary:
Recent truce between Syria, Russia, and Turkey was brokered, demanding an immediate ceasefire in the province of Idlib, located in Northern Syria bordering Turkey. Within the past week, Al-Qaeda linked terrorist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has taken control of two dozen towns and villages in the province; accumulating to 3,475 Square miles or 5% of Syrian territory. HTS now pressures the weak truce between nations, threatens security of Russian air bases, and displaced millions of citizens from their homes, threatening government justification on province.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Stresses Weak Truce Between Bordering Nations Sparking Potential Break of Truce:
Turkey, holding nearly a dozen posts along the province of Idlib has since shifted focus of threat along the eastern front, protecting the border from Syrian Kurdish troops; with preparation of an offensive. With threat of breach in the south, it is possible Turkey once again will shift focus of an offense, targeting the Northern Syria border to ensure protection of National Security; threatened by HTS. This act would breach the ceasefire agreement, causing conflict along the Northern territory again. Ankara (Capital of Turkey), senses Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s seizure of the territory is an act aimed at destabilising the agreement reached in September by both countries. Russia, ally of Syria has urged the Turkish government to act decisively in restricting militant action along their southern border. One may consider, if Turkey chooses resolute action the threat may be peacefully dealt with, de-escalating potential threats and continuing the ceasefire agreement between nations.
Threat on Russian Airbase Security in Case of Breach in Cease-Fire:
Russia, an ally with the Syrian Assad Regime controls the skies which grant many advantages for the country in protection of outside threats. Being located on the neighboring Coastal Province of Latakia, Russian air base, Khmeimim becomes a major concern for security. Prompting Russian Offense on Turkey in addition to Syrian Forces. In the event of Turkey pursing action against HTC, along the southern border Syria would view the acts of aggression as threat against the Nations security. In turn, Russia, considering its interests with Syria and real estate within the country would retaliate against the Turkish government. Escalation on both sides would produce offenses proving to be detrimental, creating stronger tension between countries than prior existing.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Seizure of Idlib Territory Displaces Millions of Citizens While Posing Government Threat on Territory:
With seizure of two dozen towns and villages in the province HTC has forced many Syrians from their homes, to avoid threat of danger. With numerous aid agencies instituted in the region there becomes threat of whether these agencies will pull out of the area. In the event of a withdrawal, civilians are left exposed without food and water along with desertion of medical support. Loss of these agencies gives incentives for the Syrian government and Russian forces to justify deadly offenses on the territory, which would lead to thousands of civilian casualties; breaking numerous humanitarian laws. Fawaz Gerges, Professor of Middle Eastern Politics, at the London School of Economics illustrated this potential threat by relating to the “Battle for Aleppo”, leaving thousands of casualties, along with government forces capturing the rebel-held east.
Potential Course of Action to resolve this issue for United States Foreign Policy:
The al-Qaida advancement in Northern Syria is occurring at a time where the United States is both on the cusp of defeating the terrorist group, Islamic State, and preparing to withdraw 2,000 troops from the region. During his presidency, Donald Trump has constantly both vowed to reduce United States presence in the region and complained that U.S allies and partners need to do more in undertaking security in Northern Syria. The decision to lessen their presence in Northern Syria will only lead to difficult times for the United States in preventing themselves from losing all of its leverage in the region. The withdrawal is just leading to the “players” (al-Qaida, Russia, Turkey) in the region to influence the situation in their favor and possibly detrimental to the United States. With the NSA still trying to figure out ways the U.S. can pull out of the region without undermining their interests, the only logical course of action that can resolve this issue in foreign policy is for the United States to reconsider pulling out of Northern Syria.
Bibliography:
Mroue, Bassem. "Al-Qaida's Advance in Northern Syria Threatens Fragile Truce." Concord Monitor. January 30, 2019. Accessed January 31, 2019. https://www.concordmonitor.com/Al-Qaida-s-advance-in-northern-Syria-threatens-fragile-truce-23137950.
Stein, Aaron. “The Scramble for Northeast Syria.” Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs Magazine, 22 Jan. 2019, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2019-01-22/scramble-northeast-syria.
